This holiday season, while you enjoy your eggnog, your family, and your bowls, executives all across the country descend into their hearty laughs as the profits roll in. The fourth quarter is almost always boom for American companies as their products are consumed with gusto from the Christmas-celebrating public. But there is another group of executives rolling in profits that are too busy for those laughs-- they surely are shifting their eyes wondering how no one is noticing. I'm talking about executives from the NCAA and its member institutions-- particularly the major football-worshiping powers that act as a minor league for the NFL. The amateur system created by the NCAA with help from the professional sports leagues (like the NFL) is puzzling at best and in-reality combats the principles of the free market economy, endangering athletes that have measurable market value for the skills they possess.
With the NFL draft slated for each April we've gotten used to college football players declaring their eligibility for the event following their final game of the season.. For the majority this means one final bowl game prior to their declaration. This season, however, we've seen a tiny hiccup in the process. A handful of players have stated their intentions prior to bowl season-- even during the regular season. A few of those have even chosen to skip those bowl games. The reason for this is two-fold. It gives an athlete a longer period of time to prepare for the NFL combine and also (and probably more importantly) nixes the chances of injury in both bowl practice and the game itself. The danger of injury so close to the draft and its lead-in process could conceivably be devastating for both a first round-type talent and a borderline player. Somewhat surprisingly there has been little backlash for those skipping the bowl games. Its tough even for the most diehard of fans to criticize a player that skips out on the prospect of helping their college team finish 8-5 or 7-6. But this thought should extend beyond this particular example. The amateur system for the money sports pushed by the NCAA is abusive, corrupt, nonsensical, and irresponsible. It flies in the face of economics, the American free-market ideal, and the personal and civil rights of the athletes.
The NCAA pay-for-play argument has certainly garnered more attention over the last half decade. The typical dissenter points to the lack of profit that comes from minor sports and questions the fairness behind paying some athletes and not others. This train of thought has very little merit in my opinion. First, let me be clear: many NCAA athletes are getting a great bargain. Those that receive an education in exchange for playing a non-revenue sport (of which there are many) and athletes at lower division schools are benefiting from a system that is ideal for them. A swimmer at Louisville, a cross-country runner at Georgia, a football player at North Alabama, a volleyball player at Central Missouri, and many others have likely maxed out the value of their abilities and owe a great deal to what is a friendly (to them) NCAA amateur system. In many cases at the lower levels and in non-revenue sports the university is giving up a great deal to benefit those athletes. But pretending this system should apply across the board to all college athletes is silly. Preventing adult athletes from cashing in on their market value is un-American and downright offensive.
First, let's take a look at the least objectionable amateur system of the major sports. The financial viability of NCAA baseball on its own is questionable. However, we do know that it has grown quickly over the last twenty years and continues to expand. The College World Series in Omaha has evolved into quite an event and it unquestionably brings in revenue for the NCAA. High school seniors are draft eligible and many of the top players are selected by the Major League organizations each year. Although that goes a long way towards a fair system it is mitigated by two factors:
1) Once enrolled, student-athletes have to stay at their institution for three years or until turning 21.
2) NCAA baseball players rarely receive full scholarships and must sit out a year if they transfer.
As you might expect, many players that aren't deemed worthy of professional dollars out of high school become professionally valued and desired during the course of their college careers. If this happens during the freshman or sophomore seasons, the player must wait in order to sign a professional contract. As others, both younger and older, sign lucrative deals these players must wait and risk injury (of particular concern for pitchers) simply because of unfair NCAA and MLB rules. Additionally, a tiny percentage of NCAA baseball players are having the entirety of school covered. Division 1 institutions have a maximum of 11.7 scholarships for 28 players. If student-athletes elect to transfer to another Division 1 institution, they must sit out the next season. Coaches, of course, are free to move as they choose.
Next we examine the professional transition for NCAA basketball players. After years of some of the top high school talent leaping directly to the professional ranks, the NBA added an age requirement for incoming draftees starting in 2006. This effectively ended the jump to the league for high school seniors. The practice had given the league, in recent years, Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, and Lebron James. When compared to the other professional leagues, the one year delay may not seem that bad. However, basketball offers the best chance for 18 and 19-year-old athletes to compete professionally. Therefore, this one year break likely affects a significant number of physically capable basketball players. Every year there are high school talents that can compete in the NBA that are forced to wait for the payday their skills have earned for them.
Thanks to the physical demands of the sport of football very few high school seniors are prepared to make a successful jump to the NFL. However rare the Adrian Peterson and Leonard Fournette specimens are, it is not questionable that dozens of 20-21 year olds across college football are capable of playing professionally. But they are prevented from doing so. Guidelines from the NFL require draftees be three years removed from their high school graduation. Thus underclassmen aren't eligible to be picked until they've completed either their junior or redshirt sophomore year of NCAA eligibility. Questions regarding health and longevity make this rule inherently unfair for the student athletes involved. The impact of concussions and the long term impact regarding CTE mean that every hit has the potential to be damaging or career ending for these football players. Because of the high level of play at the upper levels of college football many professional organizations consider the "mileage" on collegiate players, especially running backs. Essentially players could be devalued byt their experience and performance at the college level simply because of volume. Doesn't it make sense to allow these players to be paid for their services when their talent dictates such on the free market? We have numerous individuals that professional football would love to pay for their services but cannot. Meanwhile these athletes are helping make millions for the NCAA and its member institutions at great risk of physical injury that could eventually prevent any professional football future. This is a model that is unfair and counters the economic and social principles that we hold dear in the United States.
Quite frankly the NCAA has lots of things wrong. This is one of the more significant errs in their way. The professional sports leagues' involvement in this scheme is disappointing. NBA executives hid behind questions of athletes' maturity when they instituted their age minimum. But undoubtedly both the NBA and NFL enjoy having high-level minor leagues for which they don't have to pick up the tab. The NCAA system of amateurism is broken. Currently it takes advantage of athletes and pays them a relatively low amount in the form of scholarship money while their schools make millions off of their services. Its time to end this system and allow these athletes to make the money they deserve on the open market, the American way.
Sports With a Conscience
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Picking the MLB All-Star Starters
With the July 4th holiday on us it is time to pick the starters for the upcoming MLB All-Star Game in Phoenix. Unfortunately it will still determine home field advantage for the World Series. Alas, to the participants:
National League
Catcher
This choice is as easy as any on our slate as Brian McCann (.311/14/47/3.1 WAR) leads all NL catchers in the three triple crown categories.
First Base
As usual multiple solid candidates exist at first base this season. I'll take Prince Fielder (.298/21/69/3.6 WAR) over Joey Votto (.315/11/50/3.5 WAR), Gaby Sanchez (.293/13/45/2.5 WAR) and the injured Albert Pujols (.279/17/45/2.4 WAR).
Second Base
Second Base in the NL is a three way race between Brandon Phillips (.300/8/45/3.0 WAR), the Nationals' Danny Espinosa (.235/15/48/2.9 WAR), and my pick Rickie Weeks (.280/14/33/3.4 WAR). Weeks's combination of power and average benefit him in this race.
Shortstop
It is a weak year at shortstop in the National League this season and so the pick is an easy one with Jose Reyes (.352/3/32/5.3 WAR/30 SBs) getting the nod over Troy Tulowitzki (.271/16/55/3.4 WAR). Reyes is having one of the better seasons in recent memory from a shortstop with little power.
Third Base
It has been rough year for third basemen in the National League as well. There is no obvious or flawless candidate and so my pick falls to Aramis Ramirez (.295/11/42/1.7 WAR) mostly because of his consistency and RBI total.
Outfield
Picking the outfield is a tough assignment as there are as many as eight that should receive serious consideration. Matt Kemp (.330/22/64/4.5 WAR/22 SBs) is an easy choice and I will also take Ryan Braun (.321/16/61/4.0 WAR/19 SBs) and Andrew McCutcheon (.280/11/41/4.1 WAR/15 SBs). Shane Victorino (.296/9/33/4.1 WAR) and Lance Berkman (.296/20/58/2.5 WAR) are the two next strongest candidates.
Pitcher
The choice for starting pitcher is a two-horse race that is full of conflicting statistical information. I give the nod to the fresh-faced Jair Jurrjens (11-3/1.89/2.2 WAR), who leads the league in wins and ERA, over grizzled veteran and WAR-leader Roy Halladay (10-3/2.40/4.5 WAR).
American League
Catcher
The choice behind the plate in the American League is as easy as the one in the senior circuit. Alabama-product Alex Avila (.299/10/46/2.6 WAR) is having a breakout year in Detroit and should be the choice to head to Arizona.
First Base
The offensive numbers are strong at first base across the board in the American League this season. Mark Teixeira (.244/25/65/2.8 WAR) is hurt by his low average and home ballpark. Phoenix-native Paul Konerko (.318/21/62/2.3 WAR) is having a career year and was close to securing my pick but ultimately it was impossible to go against the total value of Adrian Gonzalez (.349/16/73/4.3 WAR). In his first year with the Red Sox he is putting up staggering numbers. Miguel Cabrera (.331/17/56/3.6 WAR) also deserves serious consideration.
Second Base
Both Howie Kendrick (.307/8/26/3.7 WAR) and Ben Zobrist (.263/9/40/4.0 WAR) are viable candidates in this spot but thanks the his RBI total I will give my vote to Robinson Cano (.292/14/52/2.4 WAR).
Shortstop
The American League boasts a fairly deep and even field at shortstop this season. To me Asdrubal Cabrera (.295/14/49/3.2 WAR) gets the nod mostly thanks to his defense, be that right or wrong. Jhonny Peralta (.312/13/47/3.1 WAR), Alexei Ramirez (.281/8/38/3.0 WAR), and Elvis Andrus (.282/3/30/2.5 WAR/24 SBs) all could be in Phoenix as reserves.
Third Base
Alex Rodriguez (.301/13/52/4.0 WAR) has no real competition this year and should be the starter at the hot corner.
Outfield
The American League outfield is a much smaller race than its National League counterpart with three clear-cut candidates. Jose Bautista (.330/25/54/5.5 WAR) is the easiest choice followed closely by Curtis Granderson (.275/21/56/4.3 WAR/14 SBs) and Jacoby Ellsbury (.300/9/40/3.5 WAR/25 SBs).
Designated Hitter
The only choice at the DH spot for this season is David Ortiz (.304/17/48/2.4 WAR).
Pitcher
Jered Weaver (9-4/1.97/4.0 WAR), CC Sabathia (11-4/3.05/3.9 WAR), and Justin Verlander (11-3/2.32/3.6 WAR) all are having great seasons so far but Verlander's dominant streak throughout June sets him apart from the others to earn the start on the mound.
The 2011 MLB All-Star Game will be July 12th at Chase Field in Phoenix.
National League
Catcher
This choice is as easy as any on our slate as Brian McCann (.311/14/47/3.1 WAR) leads all NL catchers in the three triple crown categories.
First Base
As usual multiple solid candidates exist at first base this season. I'll take Prince Fielder (.298/21/69/3.6 WAR) over Joey Votto (.315/11/50/3.5 WAR), Gaby Sanchez (.293/13/45/2.5 WAR) and the injured Albert Pujols (.279/17/45/2.4 WAR).
Second Base
Second Base in the NL is a three way race between Brandon Phillips (.300/8/45/3.0 WAR), the Nationals' Danny Espinosa (.235/15/48/2.9 WAR), and my pick Rickie Weeks (.280/14/33/3.4 WAR). Weeks's combination of power and average benefit him in this race.
Shortstop
It is a weak year at shortstop in the National League this season and so the pick is an easy one with Jose Reyes (.352/3/32/5.3 WAR/30 SBs) getting the nod over Troy Tulowitzki (.271/16/55/3.4 WAR). Reyes is having one of the better seasons in recent memory from a shortstop with little power.
Third Base
It has been rough year for third basemen in the National League as well. There is no obvious or flawless candidate and so my pick falls to Aramis Ramirez (.295/11/42/1.7 WAR) mostly because of his consistency and RBI total.
Outfield
Picking the outfield is a tough assignment as there are as many as eight that should receive serious consideration. Matt Kemp (.330/22/64/4.5 WAR/22 SBs) is an easy choice and I will also take Ryan Braun (.321/16/61/4.0 WAR/19 SBs) and Andrew McCutcheon (.280/11/41/4.1 WAR/15 SBs). Shane Victorino (.296/9/33/4.1 WAR) and Lance Berkman (.296/20/58/2.5 WAR) are the two next strongest candidates.
Pitcher
The choice for starting pitcher is a two-horse race that is full of conflicting statistical information. I give the nod to the fresh-faced Jair Jurrjens (11-3/1.89/2.2 WAR), who leads the league in wins and ERA, over grizzled veteran and WAR-leader Roy Halladay (10-3/2.40/4.5 WAR).
American League
Catcher
The choice behind the plate in the American League is as easy as the one in the senior circuit. Alabama-product Alex Avila (.299/10/46/2.6 WAR) is having a breakout year in Detroit and should be the choice to head to Arizona.
First Base
The offensive numbers are strong at first base across the board in the American League this season. Mark Teixeira (.244/25/65/2.8 WAR) is hurt by his low average and home ballpark. Phoenix-native Paul Konerko (.318/21/62/2.3 WAR) is having a career year and was close to securing my pick but ultimately it was impossible to go against the total value of Adrian Gonzalez (.349/16/73/4.3 WAR). In his first year with the Red Sox he is putting up staggering numbers. Miguel Cabrera (.331/17/56/3.6 WAR) also deserves serious consideration.
Second Base
Both Howie Kendrick (.307/8/26/3.7 WAR) and Ben Zobrist (.263/9/40/4.0 WAR) are viable candidates in this spot but thanks the his RBI total I will give my vote to Robinson Cano (.292/14/52/2.4 WAR).
Shortstop
The American League boasts a fairly deep and even field at shortstop this season. To me Asdrubal Cabrera (.295/14/49/3.2 WAR) gets the nod mostly thanks to his defense, be that right or wrong. Jhonny Peralta (.312/13/47/3.1 WAR), Alexei Ramirez (.281/8/38/3.0 WAR), and Elvis Andrus (.282/3/30/2.5 WAR/24 SBs) all could be in Phoenix as reserves.
Third Base
Alex Rodriguez (.301/13/52/4.0 WAR) has no real competition this year and should be the starter at the hot corner.
Outfield
The American League outfield is a much smaller race than its National League counterpart with three clear-cut candidates. Jose Bautista (.330/25/54/5.5 WAR) is the easiest choice followed closely by Curtis Granderson (.275/21/56/4.3 WAR/14 SBs) and Jacoby Ellsbury (.300/9/40/3.5 WAR/25 SBs).
Designated Hitter
The only choice at the DH spot for this season is David Ortiz (.304/17/48/2.4 WAR).
Pitcher
Jered Weaver (9-4/1.97/4.0 WAR), CC Sabathia (11-4/3.05/3.9 WAR), and Justin Verlander (11-3/2.32/3.6 WAR) all are having great seasons so far but Verlander's dominant streak throughout June sets him apart from the others to earn the start on the mound.
The 2011 MLB All-Star Game will be July 12th at Chase Field in Phoenix.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
NCAA Postseason Baseball Predictions
Predicting baseball is tough- possibly even a little ludicrous- so no expert can truly pick winners of college regionals. But that is not a good enough reason to stop me from trying. Besides, its for fun anyways. The numbers next to participants indicate the percentage estimate of each teams' chances to win the regional tournaments according to Boyd Nation at boydsworld.com. I tried to go a little outside-the-box on the players to watch as Gerrit Cole and other stars do not need my kind words. To the picks...
Charlottesville Regional
Virginia (95.7), East Carolina (4.1), St. John's (0.3) Navy (0)
Virginia gets quite an easy draw in this one. ECU certainly has some solid players and could pose a threat but Virginia's firepower is virtually unmatched anywhere in the country.
Winner: Virginia
Pitcher to watch: Mitch Harris, Navy (10-3, 1.74, 6 CG, struck out 113 and allowed 57 hits in 82.2 innings)
Hitter to watch: Joe Panik, SS, St. John's (.402/.513/.645 with 9 HRs and 21 SBs)
Corvallis Regional
Oregon State (71.8), Creighton (17.1), Georgia (11.1), UALR (0)
I'll make my first surprise pick here. Georgia, off its do-or-die SEC tournament run, continues its good play down the stretch and picks up the win at Corvallis.
Winner: Georgia
Pitcher to watch: Jonas Dufek, Creighton (11-1, 2.17, struck out 118 and allowed 78 hits in 103.2 innings)
Player to watch: Trevor Adams, OF, Creighton (.392/.465/.680 with 14 HRs and 14 SBs)
Los Angeles Regional
UCLA (34.0), Fresno State (41.4), UC-Irvine (21.3), San Francisco (3.3)
Statistically this regional is the most wide-open with the top seeded UCLA Bruins not even the favorite. What Boyd's World does not have the ability to weigh is the Pac-10 champs' pitching staff. Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer, two of the top three or four college pitchers will be on the hill for the Bruins. They are not newbies either after appearing in the College World Series Final Series last season. They're an easy pick for me.
Winner: UCLA
Pitcher to watch: Greg Gonzalez, Fresno State (11-0, 1.43 with 121 Ks and 64 hits in 100.1 innings)
Player to watch: Dusty Robinson, Fresno State (.318/16 HRs/54 RBIs)
Nashville Regional
Vanderbilt (89.4), Oklahoma State (8.5), Troy (2.0), Belmont (0)
Its a pretty easy draw in Nashville for Vanderbilt as the #6 overall seed. I think they may be a little underrated at that spot truthfully. They're powerful arms and potent offense leave no chance for on-and-off Oklahoma State and second-half slumping Troy.
Winner: Vanderbilt
Pitcher to watch: Tyler Ray, Troy (11-0, 2.39, 15 BBs in 109 innings)
Player to watch: Zach Johnson, Oklahoma State (.358/.426/.642 with 13 HRs)
Houston Regional
Rice (72.2), Baylor (10.4), California (17.4), Alcorn State (0)
I think Rice handles this one at home. Baylor is an underwhelming 2 seed. I'm not sure how the Bears are in at all if LSU is not deserving but thats an argument for another time. Wayne Graham takes the Owls to another Super Regional.
Winner: Rice
Pitcher to Watch: Tony Cingrani, Rice (4-2, 1.76, 12 SVs)
Player to Watch: Max Muncy, Baylor (.329/.433/.526 with 9 HRs)
Fullerton Regional
Cal State-Fullerton (73.1), Stanford (23.8), Kansas State (3.0), Illinois (0)
Fullerton always plays well in regionals at home and I think that trend continues. Stanford is solid but I do not think they will pose too much of a threat for the Titans. Keep and eye on Kansas State though, they played well down the stretch to earn their birth in a tough conference.
Winner: Cal State-Fullerton
Pitcher to watch: James Allen, Kansas State (3-1, 1.35, 17 SVs only 6 ERs in 29 appearances)
Player to watch: Nick Ramirez, CSF (1-0, 1.12, 16 SVs and has hit 9 of team's 17 HRs)
Ft. Worth Regional
TCU (52.9), Oklahoma (40.8), Dallas Baptist (4.8), Oral Roberts (1.6)
TCU has struggled to meet expectations this season and I think their season ends in disappointment at home. Without the Matt Purke we saw last year for the Horned Frogs their staff just is not as solid. The Sooners have talent and I like them to come into Ft. Worth and punch their ticket to Super Regionals
Winner: Oklahoma
Pitcher to watch: Michael Rocha, Oklahoma (10-3, 1.79, 5 CGs)
Player to watch: Jason Krizan, Dallas Baptist (.431/.517/.738 with 10 HRs and an NCAA single-season record 37 2Bs)
Chapel Hill Regional
North Carolina (91.8), Florida International (7.3), James Madison (0.9), Maine (0)
This is another easy draw for one of the national seeds. FIU is one of the hotter teams in the country but does not have the talent to go into ACC-terrritory and take down the Tar Heels. James Madison is a powerful offensive team and I would not be surprised to see them in the finals having outplayed the the Sun Belt's Panthers.
Winner: North Carolina
Pitcher to watch: Keith Bilodeau, Maine (10-2, 2.87, 5 CGs)
Player to watch: Jake Lowery, James Madison (.357/.444/.796 with 22 HRs and 83 RBIs)
Columbia Regional
South Carolina (86.8), Stetson (5.9), NC State (6.9), Georgia Southern (0.4)
The defending national champs start their defense of the title in the friendly confines with what should be an easy regional. The second seeded Stetson Hatters have sputtered down the stretch and just are not experienced enough to handle the Gamecocks in Columbia. I fully expect NC State to be South Carolina's biggest challenge but come up short in the end.
Winner: South Carolina
Player to watch: Victor Roache, Georgia Southern (.327/.440/.789 with 30 HRs and 83 RBIs)
Tempe Regional
Arizona State (80.2), Arkansas (19.1), Charlotte (0.6), New Mexico (0)
Many thought Arkansas was snubbed as a regional host and others still thought the Razorbacks would be the #1 seed at UCLA. They caught the short end of the stick however and I think the Sun Devils will be able to hold them off in Tempe. Its basically a two team race out there with Charlotte boasting one of the worst 3-seed resumes in the tournament.
Winner: Arizona State
Pitcher to watch: DJ Baxendale, Arkansas (9-2, 1.75)
Player to watch: DJ Peterson, New Mexico (.324/.385/.555 with 31 2Bs)
Clemson Regional
Clemson (81.8), UConn (7.4), Coastal Carolina (10.7), Sacred Heart (0.1)
Its tough to imagine Clemson not winning this bracket at home. UConn is a very talented team with a top flight #1 pitcher in Matt Barnes but they do not have the mound depth to compete with the Tigers. Coastal Carolina statistically has a better chance at the #3 spot than do the Huskies and they have some playoff-experienced players. I still see Clemson winning this one.
Winner: Clemson
Pitcher to watch: Matt Barnes, UConn (11-3, 1.12, allowed 62 hits in 112.1 innings)
Player to watch: Tommy Lastella, Coastal Carolina (.391/.471/.641 with 11 HRs and 63 RBIs)
Austin Regional
Texas (78.6), Texas State (12.9), Kent State (8.5), Princeton (0)
The Bobcats have had an impressive season out of the Southland Conference but the regionals are designed for the power conference teams that can stockpile depth in all facets of the game. Despite their power outage the Longhorns will get it done with pitching, defense, and the short-game. Do not sleep on the Kent State Golden Flashes either and they could easily be the Longhorns' stiffest competition.
Winner: Texas
Pitcher to watch: Carson Smith, Texas State (9-3, 1.98, 124 Ks in 104.1 innings)
Player to watch: Casey Kalenkosky, Texas State (.328/.409/.664 with 21 HRs and 69 RBIs)
Tallahassee Regional
Florida State (86.2), Central Florida (8.6), Alabama (5.1), Bethune-Cookman (0)
Central Florida is a quality CUSA team that had a strong non-conference schedule but struggled some in conference. They have excellent talent but I think Florida State wins in Tallahassee. They have underachieved in the postseason in recent years but I think they can handle UCF. Alabama is an underwhelming #3 seed devoid of offense and struggling on the mound after their #1 starter Nathan Kilcrease.
Winner: Florida State
Pitcher to watch: Daniel Bennett, Florida State (3-1, 2.19, 14 SVs)
Player to watch: Jonathan Griffin, UCF (.332/.382/.634 with 18 HRs)
Atlanta Regional
Georgia Tech (58.0), Southern Miss (33.8), Mississippi State (8.1), Austin Peay (0.2)
Many, including myself, thought Southern Miss had done enough to host a regional but the committee felt otherwise. The Golden Eagles appeared in the College World Series two years ago but followed up that performance with a poor showing in the Auburn Regional last year. I think they get it done this year sending the Ramblin' Wreck home early. Mississippi State is also a talented team that is back where they belong- in the postseason.
Winner: Southern Miss
Pitcher to watch: Jeremy Dobbs, Austin Peay (9-2, 3.43, 85 Ks in 86.2 innings)
Player to watch: Jarrod Parks, Mississippi State (.383/.530/.532 with 42 BBs and 19 HBPs)
College Station Regional
Texas A&M (70.1), Arizona (28.6), Seton Hall (1.1), Wright State (0.2)
Texas A&M has had a solid season in the Big 12 and was an easy choice to host this season. The 3 and 4 seeds, Seton Hall and Wright State, pose virtually no threat to the Aggies but I think the combination of John Stilson's injury and the two solid starters the Arizona Wildcats possess could mean trouble for A&M. I'll take Arizona.
Winner: Arizona
Pitcher to watch: Kyle Simon, Arizona (10-3, 2.93, 11 BBs in 119.2 innings)
Player to watch: Jake Hibberd, Wright State (.412/.452/.618 with 9 HRs)
Gainesville Regional
Florida (77.3), Miami (20.6), Jacksonville (2.1), Manhattan (0)
The powerful Florida Gators won a share of the regular season SEC title before taking the tournament championship as well. They will ride their red-hot wave through this regional. Miami always poses a threat and Jacksonville has had an impressive season in the Atlantic Sun Conference but the Gators will march through this bracket.
Winner: Florida
Pitcher to watch: John Soldinger, Manhattan (10-2, 2.34, allowed 81 hits in 104 innings)
Player to watch: Adam Brett Walker, Jacksonville (.416/.495/.697 with 22 2Bs and 13 HRs)
Super Regional Matchups
Winners in bold
UCLA @ Virginia
Oklahoma @ Rice
Arizona @ Florida State
Clemson @ South Carolina
Southern Miss @ Florida
Arizona State @ Texas
Georgia @ Vanderbilt
CS-Fullerton @ North Carolina
College World Series pick: Florida
Mitch Harris, Navy |
Virginia (95.7), East Carolina (4.1), St. John's (0.3) Navy (0)
Virginia gets quite an easy draw in this one. ECU certainly has some solid players and could pose a threat but Virginia's firepower is virtually unmatched anywhere in the country.
Winner: Virginia
Pitcher to watch: Mitch Harris, Navy (10-3, 1.74, 6 CG, struck out 113 and allowed 57 hits in 82.2 innings)
Hitter to watch: Joe Panik, SS, St. John's (.402/.513/.645 with 9 HRs and 21 SBs)
Corvallis Regional
Jonas Dufek, Creighton |
I'll make my first surprise pick here. Georgia, off its do-or-die SEC tournament run, continues its good play down the stretch and picks up the win at Corvallis.
Winner: Georgia
Pitcher to watch: Jonas Dufek, Creighton (11-1, 2.17, struck out 118 and allowed 78 hits in 103.2 innings)
Player to watch: Trevor Adams, OF, Creighton (.392/.465/.680 with 14 HRs and 14 SBs)
Los Angeles Regional
UCLA (34.0), Fresno State (41.4), UC-Irvine (21.3), San Francisco (3.3)
Greg Gonzalez, Fresno State |
Winner: UCLA
Pitcher to watch: Greg Gonzalez, Fresno State (11-0, 1.43 with 121 Ks and 64 hits in 100.1 innings)
Player to watch: Dusty Robinson, Fresno State (.318/16 HRs/54 RBIs)
Tyler Ray, Troy |
Vanderbilt (89.4), Oklahoma State (8.5), Troy (2.0), Belmont (0)
Its a pretty easy draw in Nashville for Vanderbilt as the #6 overall seed. I think they may be a little underrated at that spot truthfully. They're powerful arms and potent offense leave no chance for on-and-off Oklahoma State and second-half slumping Troy.
Winner: Vanderbilt
Pitcher to watch: Tyler Ray, Troy (11-0, 2.39, 15 BBs in 109 innings)
Player to watch: Zach Johnson, Oklahoma State (.358/.426/.642 with 13 HRs)
Houston Regional
Rice (72.2), Baylor (10.4), California (17.4), Alcorn State (0)
Max Muncy, Baylor |
Winner: Rice
Pitcher to Watch: Tony Cingrani, Rice (4-2, 1.76, 12 SVs)
Player to Watch: Max Muncy, Baylor (.329/.433/.526 with 9 HRs)
Nick Ramirez, CSF |
Cal State-Fullerton (73.1), Stanford (23.8), Kansas State (3.0), Illinois (0)
Fullerton always plays well in regionals at home and I think that trend continues. Stanford is solid but I do not think they will pose too much of a threat for the Titans. Keep and eye on Kansas State though, they played well down the stretch to earn their birth in a tough conference.
Winner: Cal State-Fullerton
Pitcher to watch: James Allen, Kansas State (3-1, 1.35, 17 SVs only 6 ERs in 29 appearances)
Player to watch: Nick Ramirez, CSF (1-0, 1.12, 16 SVs and has hit 9 of team's 17 HRs)
Ft. Worth Regional
Jason Krizan, Dallas Baptist |
TCU has struggled to meet expectations this season and I think their season ends in disappointment at home. Without the Matt Purke we saw last year for the Horned Frogs their staff just is not as solid. The Sooners have talent and I like them to come into Ft. Worth and punch their ticket to Super Regionals
Winner: Oklahoma
Pitcher to watch: Michael Rocha, Oklahoma (10-3, 1.79, 5 CGs)
Player to watch: Jason Krizan, Dallas Baptist (.431/.517/.738 with 10 HRs and an NCAA single-season record 37 2Bs)
Jake Lowery, James Madison |
North Carolina (91.8), Florida International (7.3), James Madison (0.9), Maine (0)
This is another easy draw for one of the national seeds. FIU is one of the hotter teams in the country but does not have the talent to go into ACC-terrritory and take down the Tar Heels. James Madison is a powerful offensive team and I would not be surprised to see them in the finals having outplayed the the Sun Belt's Panthers.
Winner: North Carolina
Pitcher to watch: Keith Bilodeau, Maine (10-2, 2.87, 5 CGs)
Player to watch: Jake Lowery, James Madison (.357/.444/.796 with 22 HRs and 83 RBIs)
Columbia Regional
Victor Roache, Georgia Southern |
The defending national champs start their defense of the title in the friendly confines with what should be an easy regional. The second seeded Stetson Hatters have sputtered down the stretch and just are not experienced enough to handle the Gamecocks in Columbia. I fully expect NC State to be South Carolina's biggest challenge but come up short in the end.
Winner: South Carolina
Player to watch: Victor Roache, Georgia Southern (.327/.440/.789 with 30 HRs and 83 RBIs)
Tempe Regional
DJ Baxendale, Arkansas |
Many thought Arkansas was snubbed as a regional host and others still thought the Razorbacks would be the #1 seed at UCLA. They caught the short end of the stick however and I think the Sun Devils will be able to hold them off in Tempe. Its basically a two team race out there with Charlotte boasting one of the worst 3-seed resumes in the tournament.
Winner: Arizona State
Pitcher to watch: DJ Baxendale, Arkansas (9-2, 1.75)
Player to watch: DJ Peterson, New Mexico (.324/.385/.555 with 31 2Bs)
Clemson Regional
Clemson (81.8), UConn (7.4), Coastal Carolina (10.7), Sacred Heart (0.1)
Matt Barnes, UConn |
Winner: Clemson
Pitcher to watch: Matt Barnes, UConn (11-3, 1.12, allowed 62 hits in 112.1 innings)
Player to watch: Tommy Lastella, Coastal Carolina (.391/.471/.641 with 11 HRs and 63 RBIs)
Austin Regional
Texas (78.6), Texas State (12.9), Kent State (8.5), Princeton (0)
Casey Kalenkosky, Texas State |
The Bobcats have had an impressive season out of the Southland Conference but the regionals are designed for the power conference teams that can stockpile depth in all facets of the game. Despite their power outage the Longhorns will get it done with pitching, defense, and the short-game. Do not sleep on the Kent State Golden Flashes either and they could easily be the Longhorns' stiffest competition.
Winner: Texas
Pitcher to watch: Carson Smith, Texas State (9-3, 1.98, 124 Ks in 104.1 innings)
Player to watch: Casey Kalenkosky, Texas State (.328/.409/.664 with 21 HRs and 69 RBIs)
Tallahassee Regional
Daniel Bennett, Florida State |
Central Florida is a quality CUSA team that had a strong non-conference schedule but struggled some in conference. They have excellent talent but I think Florida State wins in Tallahassee. They have underachieved in the postseason in recent years but I think they can handle UCF. Alabama is an underwhelming #3 seed devoid of offense and struggling on the mound after their #1 starter Nathan Kilcrease.
Winner: Florida State
Pitcher to watch: Daniel Bennett, Florida State (3-1, 2.19, 14 SVs)
Player to watch: Jonathan Griffin, UCF (.332/.382/.634 with 18 HRs)
Atlanta Regional
Jeremy Dobbs, Austin Peay |
Many, including myself, thought Southern Miss had done enough to host a regional but the committee felt otherwise. The Golden Eagles appeared in the College World Series two years ago but followed up that performance with a poor showing in the Auburn Regional last year. I think they get it done this year sending the Ramblin' Wreck home early. Mississippi State is also a talented team that is back where they belong- in the postseason.
Winner: Southern Miss
Pitcher to watch: Jeremy Dobbs, Austin Peay (9-2, 3.43, 85 Ks in 86.2 innings)
Player to watch: Jarrod Parks, Mississippi State (.383/.530/.532 with 42 BBs and 19 HBPs)
College Station Regional
Jake Hibberd, Wright State |
Texas A&M has had a solid season in the Big 12 and was an easy choice to host this season. The 3 and 4 seeds, Seton Hall and Wright State, pose virtually no threat to the Aggies but I think the combination of John Stilson's injury and the two solid starters the Arizona Wildcats possess could mean trouble for A&M. I'll take Arizona.
Winner: Arizona
Pitcher to watch: Kyle Simon, Arizona (10-3, 2.93, 11 BBs in 119.2 innings)
Player to watch: Jake Hibberd, Wright State (.412/.452/.618 with 9 HRs)
Gainesville Regional
Adam Brett Walker, Jacksonville |
The powerful Florida Gators won a share of the regular season SEC title before taking the tournament championship as well. They will ride their red-hot wave through this regional. Miami always poses a threat and Jacksonville has had an impressive season in the Atlantic Sun Conference but the Gators will march through this bracket.
Winner: Florida
Pitcher to watch: John Soldinger, Manhattan (10-2, 2.34, allowed 81 hits in 104 innings)
Player to watch: Adam Brett Walker, Jacksonville (.416/.495/.697 with 22 2Bs and 13 HRs)
Super Regional Matchups
Winners in bold
UCLA @ Virginia
Oklahoma @ Rice
Arizona @ Florida State
Clemson @ South Carolina
Southern Miss @ Florida
Arizona State @ Texas
Georgia @ Vanderbilt
CS-Fullerton @ North Carolina
College World Series pick: Florida
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Tressel Saga Meets Its Natural End
ex-OSU coach Jim Tressel |
Tressel with Pryor |
One clue to Tressel's character is his reaction to the episode. Since the reports of his knowledge have come to light he has taken responsibility for his actions and has done little to no dodging. The worst post-email-revealing moments came at the initial press conference when Gordon Gee's sense of humor proved about as effective as the Maginot Line. Looking back at Tressel's comments its also pretty clear he was hamstrung by personal knowledge and certainly by word micromanaging lawyers. In all likelihood he knew of the depth and scope of his issues and sat at the press conference a hollow and defeated man that had to show none of the defeat or internal-boring he had recently been through. Tressel later requested his suspension extend to match that of his offending players- five games. This action can be viewed as a last-ditch, nose-sneering move or one that came from a man's wish to curb the criticism of his university and personal friend, Gee.
To further examine the situation I think its important we consider the echoing sentiment from many ex-players: Tressel was devoted to his players, was a father-figure to many, and would bend over backward to protect them. This is an important characterization. Most coaches can come up with multiple reasons why he or she wants and loves to coach, regardless of the level. Almost every one will cite the desire to help young people. Its a desire that runs deep and to the core of most who take up the profession. Self-worth and pride often revolves around a coach's desire, ability, and effectiveness when it comes to bettering the life of a player down the road. The want to, and priority of, obeying NCAA rules for a college coach belongs high on that same list but I cannot imagine a coach that can manage a perfect record on that point. Even further I cannot imagine a coach that places this ahead of other duties, like improving the life of a player, nor should I be able to envision such a situation. Where would we be as a society if Nick Saban told his coaching staff winning and avoiding NCAA trouble rank ahead of positively altering the lives, experiences, and prospects of an impressionable young athlete? Having established this is it hard to believe Tressel might place a personal emphasis on pushing the envelope on helping Buckeyes to get to the lofty possibilities their lives contain? Is it worth it for Tressel to risk his reputation and credibility to cover a few incidents so that players have the second chance the NCAA will most assuredly crush? Or does the ex-OSU coach embody the falsely-praised, win-at-all-costs college football super-coach that crushes integrity and morality in his left hand as he fist-pumps during victories with his right? That question may or may not be answered during the course of the impending investigation but what is clear is that simple, seemingly-obvious choices reflecting character and integrity rarely retain their simplicity when examined to their core. This applies to young people with the world at their fingers like Terrelle Pryor who face daily choices that affect the rest of their lives and experience adults like Jim Tressel that have daily choices that affect the lives of so many around them.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Blocking the Plate With Buster Posey
Posey's collision with Cousins |
Bruce Bochy |
I'm still shocked by the quotes from Bochy, an ex-catcher. Collisions happen at the plate because of how much protection the catcher has on a play at the plate- both physical and metaphorical. Catchers routinely block the plate on these plays using their gear against runners whose only weapon is speed and the force it creates. Baserunners choose to run-through a catcher because that is their safest option. A headfirst slide into a blocked plate can lead to serious injury- the frightening, life-altering neck and head kind. A foot-first slide into home is also extremely risky- but for runners only. This kind of slide can lead to the very leg injuries Posey incurred on Wednesday night- but for the runner only. Catchers' safety is marginally in peril in this case. They are taught to forcefully plant their protected left knee and shin as the runner attempts to score a run. In other words backstops hold the upper hand on every play at the plate save for a collision. Which is why its the preferred method for many players.
Posey, as a SS at FSU |
I also have to wonder what rules Bochy suggest be enacted. Posey's injuries could easily be placed on his inexperience in these situations. Whats to blame for this inexperience? Home-plate collision rules in amateur baseball- which Posey played until just under two years ago (yes he also played little catcher in college- he was mostly a shortstop). One can understand the rules for younger leagues- perhaps even through high school. But in college this rule borderlines negligent. Runners 18-22 years old are required to slide- no going around, over, or through the catcher- at home plate. Violators are out, often thrown-out and suspended. All this to spare the catcher- the one man wearing loads of protective equipment- and put another, less-protected player at risk. Imagine if, after breaking through into the secondary, a running back was required to slide at the feet of the free saftey- no going through, over, or around him. Thats an exaggerated expression of course but I stand my ground on the issue. Home plate collision rules need to be relaxed at the college level, giving runners fair consideration as well as their most safe option. And as for pro baseball, the rules need no altering whatsoever, Mr. Bochy.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
College Baseball: NCAA Tournament Field Projections
Vanderbilt hurler Sonny Gray |
Southern Miss Shortstop BA Vollmuth |
My top 8 seeds are:
1) North Carolina
2) Virginia
3) Florida
4) Vanderbilt
5) Florida State
6) South Carolina
7) Arizona State
8) Texas
These eight schools would host regionals along with Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Cal St.-Fullerton, Oregon State, Arkansas, Southern Miss, and Rice. I've also picked Stetson to host a regional as a 2 seed with Clemson receiving the #1 in Deland. My sole reason for Clemson not hosting is the ACC's dominance. It sounds counterintuitive but I do not think the committee will award the ACC more than four regionals. I also have the SEC hosting four but that conference really has no fifth school in contention to host. It will be interesting to see how the committee handles the hosting situation with the ACC. Also of note there is no northeast or midwest option for hosting this year. That throws much of my guessing to the wind as many of the one-bid conferences are based in the northeast and their regional destinations are tough to predict. Arkansas hosting is a tough one to call as their RPI separates them from other SEC West opponents Auburn, Alabama, and Mississippi State but their conference record has not reflected that separation as much. Their performance in the SEC Tournament will factor greatly on their hosting resume. You may also notice I have ten SEC teams in the field. I am not sure the committee will allow that to happen. Both Ole Miss and LSU appear in my field and have the high RPI to back that up despite failing to qualify for their own conference tournament. That will be another interesting decision to watch when the field comes out.
Chapel Hill Regional
1) UNC 2) East Carolina 3) Elon 4) Charlotte
Charlottesville Regional
Troy ace Tyler Ray |
Gainesville Regional
1) Florida 2) Miami 3) Auburn 4) Bethune-Cookman
Nashville Regional
1) Vanderbilt 2) East Tennessee State 3) Kent State 4) Austin Peay
Tallahassee Regional
1) Florida State 2) Central Florida 3) Troy 4) Navy
Columbia Regional
1) South Carolina 2) NC State 3) Coastal Carolina 4) Monmouth
Tempe Regional
1) Arizona State 2) Fresno State 3) UCLA 4) Stony Brook
Austin Regional
UCLA's Trevor Bauer |
Atlanta Regional
1) Georgia Tech 2) Florida International 3) Georgia 4) Wright State
Deland Regional
1) Clemson 2) Stetson 3) Florida Atlantic 4) Jacksonville University
College Station Regional
1) Texas A&M 2) Oklahoma 3) LSU 4) Manhattan
Fullerton Regional
1) CS-Fullerton 2) California 3) Alabama 4) Princeton
Corvallis Regional
1) Oregon State 2) Arizona 3) UC-Irvine 4) Gonzaga
Fayetteville Regional
1) Arkansas 2) Oklahoma State 3) Creighton 4) Michigan State
Hattiesburg Regional
1) Southern Miss 2) Mississippi State 3) Ole Miss 4) Alcorn State
Houston Regional
1) Rice 2) Baylor 3) Texas State 4) Kansas State
Last 4 in: UCLA, Texas Tech, Jacksonville University, Kansas State
First 4 out: Southeastern Louisiana, St. John's, Washington State, Dallas Baptist
Washington State has played one of the hardest schedules in the country and is currently below .500 by a few games. If they manage to get back above that mark they would almost assuredly make it in over either Kansas State or Jacksonville.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Lance Armstrong: Under the Gun
7-time Tour de France winner Armstrong |
On Friday morning ESPN reported that Hamilton had written a letter to members of his family admitting to use of EPO on multiple occasions throughout his career including as a member of the US Postal Service team from 1999-2001. The network also reported he would appear on CBS's newsmagazine 60 Minutes on Sunday and state he saw Armstrong inject banned substances multiple times over the same period and that he had testified as much to a grand jury in 2010.
Hamilton's professional career was dotted with PED controversy including suspicion at the 2004 Olympics where he won gold in the Individual Time Trial, drug test failures, and eventually a two-year suspension. He built the reputation as a reliable protecting-rider as a teammate for the first three of Armstrong's Tour de France titles. Word came late Friday that he had returned his Gold Medal to the United States Anti-Doping Association following his admission of guilt.
Tyler Hamilton racing for Phonak |
Also set to appear on 60 Minutes is Frankie Andreu, another former teammate of Armstrong's. Andreu will reportedly admit to using PEDs after seeing what he deemed lesser riders having more success than himself. Andreu's wife has reportedly stated Armstrong has openly discussed his banned substance use with friends. Word also came late Friday that tossed another former Armstrong teammate, George Hincapie, into the fire. He also reportedly met with a grand jury looking into PED usage in cycling and stated he saw Armstrong use banned substances. Armstrong has previously referred to Hincappie as a "brother to me."
Floyd Landis, also with Phonak |
The walls on Armstrong have been slowly closing for a number of years now as several stories in Sports Illustrated as well as Floyd Landis's admissions and accusations have brought more and more to light on the subject. Friday's news that three former trusted teammates and friends all have similar stories regarding Armstrong and have testified to a grand jury in California is the most damaging information yet. Doping scandals have been a regular occurrence in cycling since the 1990s and the sheer amount of positive tests have lent credibility to the belief very few, if any, were clean during that time span. Armstrong's dominance during his unprecedented streak of seven consecutive wins at the Tour de France raised eyebrows at the time especially considering his grave condition just a few short years before as he was being treated for testicular cancer. Armstrong has also often swiftly and completely attacked the lives and credibility of those accusing him of wrongdoing. His strongly worded statements and actions, including the quick formulation of a rudimentary website attacking Hamilton, Andreu, and Landis, reek of overcompensation in public self-defense. His popularity across the globe in-part stems from his survival of cancer and work to combat the disease. After all, most everyone has been affected in some way by cancer and this experience and philanthropy has allowed Armstrong to transcend cycling and sports in general. It is becoming more likely that the carefully crafted public image of Lance Armstrong masks his true character as a liar and cheater. If this becomes reality one would have to wonder where Armstrong ranks on the all-time list of American frauds.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)